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SMMEs: Preparing for the Second Wave

20/11/2020 14/05/2021

Covid-19 has forced the entire world to remodel how it operates, from the personal perspective to ways in which businesses operate.

Experts, including academics and government, have warned the nation of the possibility of a second wave of high infections. Research suggests that a national resurgence is most likely on the way and expected to hit by early 2021. A new trend in the resurgence is set to start and repeat every year around the same time going forward.

The national daily infection rate has decreased considerably in the recent past, but the country is far from listing the Covid-19 pandemic as a thing of the past. As mutters of a second wave increase, it’s only understandable that Small, Medium and Micro Enterprises (SMMEs) are also scrambling for cover.

“Forewarned is forearmed” (Samuel Shellabarger, Prince of Foxes)

The daily covid-19 infection rate has decreased considerably over the last month or so. South Africans have found a way to live with the risk of infections and have in the recent past become generally more active. This has increased the fear that there might be a second wave of high Covid-19 infection and mortality rate. Western Cape government, for example, has warned a resurgence is highly probable considering the second wave of mass infections sweeping across internationally.

Explaining why it is still important to be cautious against Covid-19 for the next few months, the National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD) warns that “Coronavirus is not going away any time soon”.

“We are seeing second waves in European countries three to four months after their first wave. We don’t know if this will happen in South Africa, but it is possible, and even likely. Also, we know that once you get Coronavirus you are not immune from it for life, and you could become re-infected in the future,” it says in a statement on its website.

SMMEs, like the citizens, have to protect themselves from the possible re-emergence of high numbers of infections, which have crippled a considerable number of them earlier this year.

Based on advice from a collective of experts, here are some tips for SMMEs looking to prepare for the possible second wave of high Covid-19 infection rates:

General working conditions and workplace policies have to be reviewed

According to the Centres of Disease Control and Prevention in the US, the working conditions and policies must be reviewed in order to best assist companies in protecting themselves against the full blow of the virus. Companies are advised to “examine” working conditions and policies in order to protect employees, and ultimately themselves.

“When possible, use flexible worksites (e.g. telework) and flexible work hours (e.g. staggered shifts) to help establish policies and practices for social distancing (maintaining distance of approximately 6 feet or 2 meters) between employees and others, especially if social distancing is recommended by state and local health authorities,” said the organisation.

2. Consider remote working more as an option than a forced situation.

On the local front, Accelerate CEO, Ryan Ravens, recently spoke on a survey conducted on remote working due to Covid-19.

He told radio station Cape Talk, that “increasingly, it (remote working) works better for companies as well as employees. I think there has always been a resistance by our very traditional corporates because they felt employees would not be as efficient and/or wouldn’t deliver more, but I think that notation has been turned on its head. Employees have actually showed up and shown that they can work far better when working from home.”

3. Inventory and stock

Consider stocking up on supplies and raw material reasonably, knowing that replenishing them can’t be guaranteed ahead should the stricter lockdown regulations be reimplemented by government. The stockpiling process should be ideal to each business, considering aspects like expiration dates in certain goods, for example, and access to market. Careful management of the inventory is necessary.

4. Insurance

The importance of having quality insurance in general can never be overstated, and the same thinking prevails in business. Policyholders are encouraged to relook at the fine print of their business insurance policies to refresh their memories and for better understanding, bearing in mind the unusual circumstances the world is operating in. Insurers on the other hand are encouraged to “pick-up the pace”. However, the global scourge is seen as a challenge that should motivate insurers to put customer-care first.

A jointly authored blog by Price Waterhouse Cooper’s global insurance advisory leader, Abhijit Mukhopadhyay, and leading practitioner in “customer experience”, John Jones, expounds on this narrative. The two expert authors express that “Policyholders will want to know their claims will be paid. But it doesn’t always work out that way — especially with a pandemic, which is not generally covered by insurance (except possibly through costly business continuity insurance). Customers are bound to be confused and anxious, and they need to feel that their questions and concerns are addressed with honesty and empathy.”

5. Understand the seasonal cycle of business

Businesses prepare and operate with attention to their annual business cycles. They are advised to prepare knowing that the unidentified length of the possible viral resurgence might overlap their business season, i.e. quarters and other periodic demarcations of business.

6. Minimise spending

SMMEs are advised to minimise spending in order to have as much in the piggy bank as possible. Reserves will be critical in a period where there is minimal income. Careful budgeting could be the possible rabbit out of a hat for successful businesses during the dreaded possible re-emergence of stricter lockdown restrictions.

7. Get familiar with the government’s Covid-19 Relief Fund for SMMEs

This could be critical for SMMEs. Understanding the qualification process and benefits described by the Department of Small Business Development (DBSD) can be the determining factor between relief aided continuity and capitulation. The current amount given to businesses that qualified for the Covid-19 Relief has eclipsed R500 000, according to the department.

The department supposedly updates information related to the relief fund on its website for entrepreneurs to peruse, according to the set business classifications of the SMMEs.

Your SME and the Economy – Prepare for the Long Way Back

22/10/2020 14/05/2021

The South African economy could take as long as seven years to return to the size of R5.1 trillion it was at the end of 2019 before Covid-19 and the national lockdown.

The most significant risk to the economic outlook is the precarious state of government finances, especially Eskom’s rising debt.

A slow recovery for the local economy is going to be “very negative” for unemployment, poverty and inequality.

Economists suggest that small businesses gear themselves for tough times, keep costs low, and ensure they are highly innovative. We give you critical insight into the future of the South African economy so you and your business can be prepared and ready for what experts forecast.

The South African economy could take as long as seven years to get back to the size of R5.1 trillion it was at the end of 2019 before Covid-19 and the national lockdown.

This forecast is according to Citadel chief economist Maarten Ackerman, who expressed this view during an interview.

Long way back

Christopher Loewald, South African Reserve Bank (SARB) head of economic research, told the Tax Indaba that it was going to take a long time to get back to a real activity level of 100% again.

During the same event, Ismail Momoniat, National Treasury Deputy Director-General for tax and financial sector policy, said that it wouldn’t be an easy road to get the South African economy back to its 2019 level.

“We need a Covid-19 vaccine, and we need to ensure that sufficient people get vaccinated. I think we need to be careful about talking about post-Covid. I think we are years away from that,” he added.

Advice for SMEs

Economists suggest that small businesses gear themselves for tough times, keep costs low, and ensure they are highly innovative.

“Small businesses need to be lean and mean. They need to have a buffer to get them through difficult times,” Ackerman said.

Every business needed to think carefully about how they expanded, he added.

Make your plans in the context of the forecasts we discuss below…

The local economy has contracted

This advice comes amid a local economy that has stagnated since 2015 and contracted for the past year, including a 51% contraction, on an annualised basis, in the second quarter because of the nationwide lockdown that started on March 27.

Sanisha Packirisamy, MMI Investments and Savings economist, said during an interview, that she was expecting the local economy to contract by 8.1% this year, followed by a muted rebound of 2% in 2021 when anticipated Eskom power cuts will constrain the economy.

Ackerman said that an 8% contraction of the local economy would be the biggest decline since 1920 when there was a 12% contraction.

A worrying sign

A worrying sign was that the outlook for fixed investment and household consumption, both key to the long-term economic health, were both bleak, Packirisamy added.

For 2022 and 2023, she is forecasting growth of about 1.5% for both years.

“We are stretched on the fiscal side, and confidence is extremely muted. We face policy uncertainty and slow structural reform. It is that combination of factors that makes it very difficult for us to grow faster,” she added.

Mild inflation outlook

The inflation outlook is positive.

Packirisamy is forecasting inflation to average 3.2% in 2020 and 3.8% in 2021 before rising to 4.5% in both 2022 and 2023.

Economists forecast that interest rates will stay low.

Packirisamy said that the SARB could cut interest rates further, but interest rates were likely to increase from the second half of 2021.

At the end of 2021, Packirisamy expected the prime interest rate to be 7.5%, and by the end of 2023, the prime interest rate maybe 8.5%.

Credit rating to fall even further

In March this year, Moody’s Investors Service cut the South African government’s credit rating to “junk” status or sub-investment grade, which is the grade that its two rivals, Fitch Ratings and S&P Global Ratings had the country on since April 2017.

“We are probably going to see more downgrades, and by 2023 the country’s credit rating will be two or three notches lower,” Ackerman said.

He said that the government was facing a fiscal crisis, and the only way for the South African state to avoid that was to embark on big expenditure cuts, but the state was baulking at doing that.

Public finances are dangerously overstretched

“Public finances are dangerously overstretched. Without urgent action…a debt crisis will follow,” the National Treasury said in July.

The government budget deficit, which is the amount by which revenue fails to fund expenditure, will widen to 15% during the fiscal year ending March 2021, according to Ackerman.

Then in the fiscal year ending March 2022, the budget deficit will recover to 10%, he expects.

In five to seven years, Ackerman forecasts that government debt will climb to 100% of GDP, he said. By comparison, the National Treasury estimates that national debt will reach 81.8% of GDP by the end of March 2021.

Unemployment rate to soar

According to Packirisamy, the unemployment rate would climb because South Africa was not growing fast enough to absorb the new people entering the labour force.

Ackerman predicts that the rate of unemployment would rise to 35% by 2023 from 30%.

South Africa needs growth of at least 3% before the unemployment rate declined, he added.

How to get out of the debt trap?

South Africa needs to get out of its debt trap by igniting economic growth. In the meantime, it needs to find international or other funding to plug the gap in the state budget.

There are fears that the state might force managers of pension funds to allocate a portion of their clients’ money to fund the running of the government and state-owned enterprises.

But Treasury’s Momoniat told the Tax Indaba that the state was not looking to put in place any prescribed asset regime.

Could an IMF bailout follow the loan?

In July, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved a US$4.3 billion loan to the South African government.

The state intends to borrow US$7 billion from multilateral finance institutions, including the IMF, the National Treasury said in early July.

There is a possibility that the South African government will be forced to go back to the IMF in the future for further debt in the form of a wider-ranging bailout.

“I think an IMF bailout would be very positive for markets, because it installs a bit of a policy anchor, and it forces the government to do things that it may not feel comfortable to do otherwise,” Packirisamy said.

About the value of the rand, Packirisamy said that she expected the rand would maintain its long-term depreciating bias because of South Africa’s high level of inflation when compared with its major trading partners and the deteriorating local economic fundamentals.

Tax Incentives to Invest in Small Business: The Clock is Ticking

08/09/2020 14/05/2021

National Treasury is reviewing all of its business tax incentives to determine to what extent they are contributing to policy objectives. One such incentive under review is the “Section 12J” incentive, which allows an investor a deduction of the full amount invested in a Section 12J VCC (Venture Capital Company), provided certain requirements are met, from its taxable income.

The VCC regime was introduced in 2009 with the objective of boosting economic growth and job creation by assisting small businesses that cannot obtain financing from financial institutions to access equity finance.

The regime is subject to a 12 year sunset clause that ends on 30 June 2021 – if your small business needs venture capital funding, the clock is ticking!

“Creating an environment in which SMMEs can thrive is inextricably linked to creating conditions in which all businesses can thrive.” (National Treasury, 2019 Economic Strategy document)

The VCC (Venture Capital Companies) incentive allows a holder of shares to claim a 100% tax deduction of the cost of the shares issued by an approved VCC, provided certain requirements are met. The deduction is subject to recoupment if the VCC shares are held for less than five years.

VCCs have been investing in small and medium-sized businesses (SMEs) that include education, agriculture, renewable energy, hospitality and tourism, and student accommodation. Many of them are especially hard-hit by the strict lockdown regulations imposed on businesses.

Funding has always been a major stumbling block for start-ups, and small businesses wanting to expand. They will find it far more difficult post-COVID-19 to get access to funding. Without the tax incentive it is possible that investments may flow offshore – investors will take their money where the rewards match the risks.

According to SARS, there were 180 registered and approved VCCs which had raised R8.3 billion at 28 February 2019.

The VCC industry body, 12J Association of South Africa, conducted its own survey on the impact investments have made to date. It released the results in June this year.

Responses were received from 12J managers that collectively manage 106 VCCs and R9.3bn in assets under management to date.

The R9.3bn industry assets under management has been raised from over 5,500 investors, equating to an average investment amount of R1.7m per investor.

The survey report shows that the Section 12J capital raised has been invested into more than 360 small, medium and micro-sized entities which in turn support 10,500 jobs (50% of them permanent) across dozens of industries.

According to the survey the incentive has been cost-effective at an average cost per job of approximately R126,000 for each current job created. This is in contrast to current job creation focused incentives in South Africa, which allow for a required cost per job of up to R450,000.

Getting the investors

When the VCC tax incentive was introduced these companies were to be the “marketing vehicles” to attract retail investors with the tax incentive as a major advantage.

There was an initial investment limit of R750,000 per tax year and a lifetime limit of R2.25m. This limit was removed around 2011 in order to make the incentive more attractive.

However, due to several amendments to the Act, aimed at combatting perceived abuse, the incentive only really gained traction after 2015.

In July last year new caps were introduced. Investments by a natural person and trusts were capped at R2.5m and for companies investments were capped at R5m in a tax year.

Small businesses – the clock is ticking!

The regime is subject to a 12 year sunset clause that ends on 30 June 2021.

Many of the industries qualifying for VCC investments were hard hit by the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Survey participants expect COVID-19 to have a negative impact on the ability of SMEs to obtain equity capital over the next year and even the next two years. This is likely to manifest itself in a far higher unemployment rate and corresponding lower growth in the South African economy.

More than 75% of the participants in the industry survey said investors would not have invested their capital in SMEs, had it not been for the attractiveness of the Section 12J tax incentive.

The 12J Association of South Africa suggests that the tax incentive should be extended until at least 2027.

SMMEs will now need more support than ever before, and if your small business is struggling to find funding, ask your accountant now for advice on applying to a VCC. Unless the June 2021 sunset clause on tax incentives for section 12J funding is extended, support from investors will soon dwindle – the clock is ticking!

This article is a general information sheet and should not be used or relied upon as professional advice. No liability can be accepted for any errors or omissions nor for any loss or damage arising from reliance upon any information herein. Always contact your financial adviser for specific and detailed advice. Errors and omissions excepted (E&OE)